Bayesian Causal Atlas · Real-Estate Series · Vol. RVB-1
An opportunity-cost model in the tradition of the NYT Upshot calculator, extended for the Canadian transaction stack the U.S. tool ignores: tiered land-transfer tax (Ontario + Toronto municipal, BC, QC, AB, SK, MB), CMHC default-insurance premiums and provincial PST, title insurance, the Principal Residence Exemption, Non-Resident Speculation Tax, and new-build GST/HST. Every dollar not spent on a home is invested; the two paths are compared on terminal net worth.
Each line is the wealth you would hold if you liquidated at the end of that year — the buyer’s home equity net of selling costs, mortgage payoff and capital-gains tax, plus any invested surplus; the renter’s invested portfolio (the buyer’s upfront cash, compounded, plus the monthly savings from renting).
The upfront cash the buyer deploys — and which the renter invests instead. This is where the Canadian calculation departs sharply from the U.S. model.
What the home returns when sold at your horizon, after commission, discharge and capital-gains tax.
Change in the buy-versus-rent advantage when each driver is shifted by a plausible increment (±1 percentage point on rates and growth; ±10% on starting rent). Longest bars dominate the decision — spend your diligence there, not on the rounding-error inputs.
Full assumption register and the authorities behind each rate. Tax constants current as of the date shown; verify with your lawyer or notary before closing.
Educational model, not tax, legal or investment advice. It assumes a constant mortgage rate across the holding period (real Canadian terms renew, typically every 5 years), treats appreciation and returns as smooth annual rates rather than volatile paths, and uses purchase price as a proxy for assessed value in property tax. Provincial welcome-tax and title-fee schedules for AB/SK/MB/QC are close approximations and are indexed or municipally varied — confirm locally.